The essential proposition
Economic growth has a physical foundation. Every modern economy depends on reliable power, transport, housing, water, communications and productive industry. Those systems are built from bulk commodities and sustained by infrastructure.
Steel and aluminium are sometimes described as mature materials. That description confuses age with relevance. They remain essential because economic development requires physical stock. Cities require buildings and transport networks. Industry requires power and logistics. Agriculture requires machinery, storage and access to markets. Digital infrastructure requires electricity, construction materials and expanding grids.
Demand changes as economies mature, but the need for physical capacity does not disappear. It shifts from first construction toward expansion, replacement, resilience and new forms of infrastructure.
Demand is changing, not disappearing
The current outlook is constructive rather than exuberant. The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to grow modestly in 2026 and accelerate in 2027. It describes global demand as moving beyond a period of structural adjustment, with developing Asia and Africa providing important sources of growth.
Africa is particularly significant. Worldsteel forecasts African steel demand growth of 3.8 percent in 2026 and 4.6 percent in 2027, supported by urbanisation, infrastructure development and economic diversification. India remains the fastest growing major steel market, driven by infrastructure, rail expansion, construction and rising industrial activity.
The outlook for aluminium and other industrial metals is also supported by both traditional and emerging uses. The World Bank projects its metals and minerals price index to rise 17 percent in 2026, citing tight supply and strong demand from established industries and newer sources of consumption.
This is not a claim that every commodity will rise continuously or that cycles have ended. It is a recognition that the structural need for material supply remains intact, while new mines, power systems, railways and ports are increasingly difficult and expensive to develop.
Growth must be built
Gross domestic product is an imperfect measure, but sustained real GDP growth remains indispensable. It expands the economic base from which wages, employment, public revenue, investment and essential services can grow. Without growth, arguments about distribution too easily become arguments over a fixed pool.
Growth alone is not enough. Its quality, durability and distribution matter. Productivity matters. Institutions matter. Environmental and social performance matter. But economies cannot sustainably improve living standards through allocation alone. They must also increase productive capacity.
We believe durable GDP growth is one of the most effective ways to expand opportunity in every economy, including the host nations in which major projects are developed.
That is why infrastructure and bulk commodities should be considered together. A mineral deposit without power, transport and market access is not an operating asset. A port without productive industry has limited value. Integrated development can convert resource endowment into a wider economic platform.
Host nations and shared value
For host nations, the opportunity is larger than the extraction of a commodity. Well structured projects can support employment, skills, fiscal revenue, export earnings and infrastructure that serves other users. Power, road, rail and port capacity can lower costs across an economy and improve the competitiveness of domestic businesses.
The World Bank Africa Economic Update argues that stronger growth and job creation require investment, infrastructure, skills, finance and regional markets to work as part of a wider system. It also emphasises that industrial policy succeeds only when implementation is realistic and institutions are capable.
This is an important qualification. Resource development does not automatically produce broad prosperity. Projects must be commercially viable, properly governed and connected to the wider economy. Fiscal terms must be durable. Infrastructure must provide reliable services. Local participation should build capability rather than satisfy a temporary target.
A constructive development model
Marquis believes that responsible resource development should align the interests of investors, operating companies and host nations over the long term.
- Commercial disciplineProjects must be able to sustain investment through commodity and financing cycles.
- Integrated infrastructureEnergy, logistics and market access should be developed as part of the economic system around the asset.
- Operating capabilityCapital should be matched by management, governance and technical execution.
- Local economic valueEmployment, skills, procurement and shared infrastructure should strengthen the host economy.
- Long term alignmentStable partnerships are more valuable than short term optimisation by any single participant.
Electricity reinforces the thesis
The material intensity of growth is not limited to conventional construction. The International Energy Agency forecasts global electricity demand growth of 3.7 percent in 2026, supported by industry, cooling, data centres and electrification.
Electricity growth requires generation, transmission, distribution and storage. Those systems require steel, aluminium, copper, energy and large scale civil works. The digital economy is not weightless. It rests on a growing physical foundation.
The risks remain real
A positive long term outlook does not remove cyclical or execution risk. China remains central to many commodity markets. Trade restrictions can redirect flows. High financing costs can defer development. Permitting, community alignment and infrastructure constraints can delay supply. Poorly structured projects can destroy value even when the macro thesis is correct.
These risks argue for selectivity, not retreat. The most resilient positions are likely to be assets with long lives, competitive operating economics, credible infrastructure and capital structures capable of surviving volatility.
The Marquis view
Bulk commodities remain essential because growth remains essential. The world still needs more power, transport, housing, industrial capacity and resilient infrastructure. Developing economies need to build productive stock. Advanced economies need to renew it. New industries add further requirements rather than replacing the old ones.
Our outlook is therefore positive, but disciplined. We favour major assets that can sit within integrated operating platforms, support long term economic activity and contribute to the productive capacity of their host nations.
Growth is not guaranteed. It must be financed, built and operated. Bulk commodities are among its most fundamental inputs.